November 19, 2007 - The launch of Intel's new 45nm-based Penryn processors means more business from IC substrate makers with small volume production of new flip-chip substrate makers, causing several Taiwan and Japanese firms to project a 25% increase in their business next year, according to a Digitimes report.

Japan-based Ibiden, NGK Spark Plug and Shinko, as well as Taiwan-based Nanya Printed Circuit Board (NPC), have all started shipping 14-layer flip-chip substrates to Intel in small volumes, and once CPU shipments ramp to volume production in 2008 the firms estimate that Intel will consume 25%-30% of total FV substrate capacity -- but most major substrate makers haven't laid out expansion plans beyond a 10% capacity increase, the report claims.

Meanwhile, new graphics chips also will require more substrate layers -- AMD and Nvidia are also growing their substrate layer demand for entry-level graphics chips from six to eight layers, the report adds.

Among substrate providers' individual plans, only Unimicron has what the paper deemed an "aggressive" capacity expansion plan, aiming to add 8M units/month by year's end, mainly to meet demand for main customer Nvidia, and 12M units/month output is possible for 2008. NPC only expects to increase capacity by 3%-6% next year to 33M units/month. Phoenix Precision Technology, which averaged 85% utilization for its 14M unit/month capacity in 3Q and expects to hit 90%-95% utilization in 4Q, says it hasn't decided on 2008 expansion plans yet.

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Major FC substrate makers expansion plans

Company..........Monthly capacity ..........2007 shipments..........2008 shipments..........Major customers

ASE.......................2-3M.............................16M...............................40M.......................Broadcom
NGK.......................15M..............................95M.............................116M.......................Intel
NPC.......................30M............................253M.............................344M.......................AMD, Intel, .......................................................................................................................................Nvidia
PPT.......................14M............................140M..............................167M.......................AMD, Nvidia, .......................................................................................................................................SiS, VIA
Unimicron..................8M............................66M.............................113M.......................Nvidia
Semco.....................20M..........................155M.............................194M.......................Intel
Shinko....................20M...........................120M.............................140M.......................Intel

Source: Companies, Digitimes compilations